Unpacking Neighbourhood Change: Income Estimation, Mobility, and Segregation in Medellín

Abstract

Medellín has undergone rapid urban transformation and is often cited as a model of inclusive urbanism. However, less is known about how these changes shape spatial inequalities and segregation. This study examines neighbourhood change between 2004 and 2019. First, we develop robust neighbourhood-level income estimates by leveraging Medellín’s household survey micro-data and sampling design. Second, we validate and re-weight the representativeness of our income metrics using reliable census and national survey benchmarks. Third, using these estimates we document spatial and temporal shifts in income in Medellín’s neighbourhoods, identifying clusters of time series income trajectories. Our taxonomy of neighbourhood change captures spatial sorting dynamics, emerging patterns of income mixing, and clear trends across time spent in the neighbourhood. This research moves beyond conventional gentrification frameworks, offering a multidimensional, data-driven approach to understanding socio-spatial inequalities and urban transformation in Medellín.