Bayesian

Forecasting from Others’ Experience: Bayesian Estimation of the Generalized Bass Model

We propose a Bayesian estimation procedure for the generalized Bass model that is used in product diffusion models. Our method forecasts product sales early based on previous similar markets; that is, we obtain pre-launch forecasts by analogy. We …

Welfare Gains of the Poor: An Endogenous Bayesian Approach with Spatial Random Effects

We introduce a Bayesian instrumental variable procedure with spatial random effects that handles endogeneity, and spatial dependence with unobserved heterogeneity. We find through a limited Monte Carlo experiment that our proposal works well in terms …